Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
