A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
